Oscars 2019: My Final Predictions

Best Picture
“Black Panther”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“The Favourite”
“Green Book”
“A Star Is Born”

Will Win: “Roma”
Should Win: “The Favourite” is a bloody good time. But if it can’t win, I don’t mind “Roma” taking the statue.

Lead Actor
Christian Bale, “Vice”
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”

Will Win:  Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Should Win: Honestly, I’m baffled Bradley Cooper hasn’t swept this category all season long. This nominee list is heavy on “transformative” performances, but he dug deeper than Bale, Malek, or Mortensen did in flashier, emptier roles.

Lead Actress
Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Will Win: (Dare I jinx it?) Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Should Win: Three veterans vs. two first-time leading actresses. Melissa McCarthy is my personal pick in a strong category.

Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”

Will Win: Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Should Win: Richard E. Grant is the easy choice here: delicious, hilarious, heart-breaking.

Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

Will Win: Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Should Win: Wonderful performances on this list. I’d give the edge to Rachel Weisz and her way with a withering insult.

Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”
Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
Adam McKay, “Vice”

Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
Should Win: Give it to Yorgos and Alfonso in a tie!

Animated Feature
“Incredibles 2,” Brad Bird
“Isle of Dogs,” Wes Anderson
“Mirai,” Mamoru Hosoda
“Ralph Breaks the Internet,” Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman

Will Win: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”

Adapted Screenplay
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
“BlacKkKlansman,” Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Barry Jenkins
“A Star Is Born,” Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

Will Win: “BlacKkKlansman”
Should Win: The masterful wit of “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” Though “BlacKkKlansman” had trouble deciding how comedic/serious/satirical it wanted to be, I’ll still be moved if Spike Lee gets to make a speech on Oscars night. Expect Bradley Cooper, once again, to lose.

Original Screenplay
“The Favourite,” Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
“First Reformed,” Paul Schrader
“Green Book,” Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“Vice,” Adam McKay

Will Win: “The Favourite”
Should Win: “First Reformed,” one of the most gripping and terrifying movies of the year.

“Cold War,” Lukasz Zal
“The Favourite,” Robbie Ryan
“Never Look Away,” Caleb Deschanel
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“A Star Is Born,” Matthew Libatique

Will Win: “Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
Should Win: I really loved the look of “A Star Is Born.” Watch “La vie en rose” again… those shots of Gaga and Bradley staring straight into the camera. Swoon.

Best Documentary Feature
“Free Solo,” Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi
“Hale County This Morning, This Evening,” RaMell Ross
“Minding the Gap,” Bing Liu
“Of Fathers and Sons,” Talal Derki
“RBG,” Betsy West, Julie Cohen

Will Win: “RBG”

Best Foreign Language Film
“Capernaum” (Lebanon)
“Cold War” (Poland)
“Never Look Away” (Germany)
“Roma” (Mexico)
“Shoplifters” (Japan)

Will Win: “Roma”

Film Editing
“BlacKkKlansman,” Barry Alexander Brown
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Ottman
“Green Book,” Patrick J. Don Vito
“The Favourite,” Yorgos Mavropsaridis
“Vice,” Hank Corwin

Will Win: “BlacKkKlansman,” Barry Alexander Brown
Should Win: Anything but “Vice” and those insistent fishing metaphors spliced into every scene.

Sound Editing
“Black Panther,” Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Warhurst
“First Man,” Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
“A Quiet Place,” Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl
“Roma,” Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay

Will Win: “A Quiet Place”

Sound Mixing
“Black Panther”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“First Man”
“A Star Is Born”

Will Win: “Bohemian Rhapsody”

Production Design
“Black Panther,” Hannah Beachler
“First Man,” Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
“The Favourite,” Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
“Mary Poppins Returns,” John Myhre, Gordon Sim
“Roma,” Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez

Will Win: “The Favourite”
Should Win: “Black Panther” for scale and scope.

Original Score
“BlacKkKlansman,” Terence Blanchard
“Black Panther,” Ludwig Goransson
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Nicholas Britell
“Isle of Dogs,” Alexandre Desplat
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman

Will Win:  “If Beale Street Could Talk,” Nicholas Britell
Should Win: Nicholas Britell’s score for “If Beale Street Could Talk” is so beautiful. Will listen to it on repeat for months.

Original Song
“All The Stars” from “Black Panther” by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
“I’ll Fight” from “RBG” by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns” by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
“Shallow” from “A Star Is Born” by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice
“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch

Will Win: Some little song called “Shallow.”
Should Win: I am on board with the inevitable “Shallow” win. Of course, no Oscar here for Bradley, though he just won a Grammy for performing it!

Makeup and Hair
“Mary Queen of Scots”

Will Win: “Vice.” Hello, jowly.

Costume Design
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Mary Zophres
“Black Panther,” Ruth E. Carter
“The Favourite,” Sandy Powell
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Sandy Powell
“Mary Queen of Scots,” Alexandra Byrne

Will Win: “Black Panther”

Visual Effects
“Avengers: Infinity War”
“Christopher Robin”
“First Man”
“Ready Player One”
“Solo: A Star Wars Story”

Will Win: “Avengers: Infinity War”

Animated Short
“Animal Behaviour,” Alison Snowden, David Fine
“Bao,” Domee Shi
“Late Afternoon,” Louise Bagnall
“One Small Step,” Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas
“Weekends,” Trevor Jimenez

Will Win: “Bao” (Because Pixar.)

Best Documentary Short Subject
“Black Sheep,” Ed Perkins
“End Game,” Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman
“Lifeboat,” Skye Fitzgerald
“A Night at the Garden,” Marshall Curry
“Period. End of Sentence.,” Rayka Zehtabchi

Will Win: “Period. End of Sentence.”

Best Live Action Short Film 
“Detainment,” Vincent Lambe
“Fauve,” Jeremy Comte
“Marguerite,” Marianne Farley
“Mother,” Rodrigo Sorogoyen
“Skin,” Guy Nattiv

Will Win: “Marguerite”

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