Something unexpected happens every year at the Oscars: 2018’s surprise love for Phantom Thread; American Sniper in 2015; Jonah Hill riding The Wolf of Wall Street to his second (!) nomination.
All bets are off in a year with some very interesting work (The Favourite, Eighth Grade, If Beale Street Could Talk, even Black Panther) facing off against some serious “meh” movies.
I wouldn’t mind if Bohemian Rhapsody and Vice missed out on nominations. But Bohemian was a mega-success, and dollars matter. Vice is much more polarizing, but since Christian Bale is the Best Actor frontrunner, it still has a good shot.
My biggest prediction: Peter Farrelly misses out for Green Book in favor of an artsier director. It would be like Ben Affleck missing for Argo; the Oscars loves to honor auteurs.
Yalitza’s nom–the fifth slot–could be anyone’s, but I’m predicting some serious Roma love will help here and in Best Supporting Actress.
John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman) is knocking right at the edge of this category.
Claire Foy (First Man) has every precursor nom possible… but I still think she, and her movie, are vulnerable. Expecting a real surprise, like Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread) in 2018.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
I feel pretty good about this one. We will see!
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
An uphill battle for Eighth Grade and First Reformed both to get noms over bigger movies, but I’m including them anyway!
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Star Is Born
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Crazy Rich Asians
If Beale Street Could Talk
If Spike Lee gets in for BlacKkKlansman, I expect a serious push to win him his first competitive Oscar.