Something unexpected happens every year at the Oscars: 2018’s surprise love for Phantom Thread; American Sniper in 2015; Jonah Hill riding The Wolf of Wall Street to his second (!) nomination.

All bets are off in a year with some very interesting work (The Favourite, Eighth Grade, If Beale Street Could Talk, even Black Panther) facing off against some serious “meh” movies.

BEST PICTURE
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

I wouldn’t mind if Bohemian Rhapsody and Vice missed out on nominations. But Bohemian was a mega-success, and dollars matter. Vice is much more polarizing, but since Christian Bale is the Best Actor frontrunner, it still has a good shot.

BEST DIRECTOR
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Adam McKay (Vice)

My biggest prediction: Peter Farrelly misses out for Green Book in favor of an artsier director. It would be like Ben Affleck missing for Argo; the Oscars loves to honor auteurs.

BEST ACTRESS
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Yalitza’s nom–the fifth slot–could be anyone’s, but I’m predicting some serious Roma love will help here and in Best Supporting Actress.

BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman) is knocking right at the edge of this category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams (Vice)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Claire Foy (First Man) has every precursor nom possible… but I still think she, and her movie, are vulnerable. Expecting a real surprise, like Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread) in 2018.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

I feel pretty good about this one. We will see!

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma

An uphill battle for Eighth Grade and First Reformed both to get noms over bigger movies, but I’m including them anyway!

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Star Is Born
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Crazy Rich Asians
If Beale Street Could Talk

If Spike Lee gets in for BlacKkKlansman, I expect a serious push to win him his first competitive Oscar.