You can find the full nomination list here. I’m predicting four statues for The Shape of Water, but after last year’s Moonlight win, anything can happen.

1. Best Picture
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Call Me By Your Name. Or Get Out.

2. Best Director
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Should Win: After several exhausting blockbusters, Christopher Nolan completely surprised me with Dunkirk, finding a real humanity at the heart of a breathless spectacle. But he won’t win.

3. Best Actress in a Leading Role
Will Win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: No qualms with Frances winning in a powerhouse category.

4. Best Actor in a Leading Role
Will Win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Should Win: Timothée Chalamet in Call Me By Your Name is the clear standout.

5. Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Should Win: While Janney is good, Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird had a richer character and dug deeper.

6. Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project. I’m a sucker for quieter performances, I guess.

7. Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Will Win: James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
Should Win: James Ivory (with a debt owed to André Aciman’s novel).

8. Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
Will Win: Tough race, but I predict Jordan Peele for Get Out will eke out Martin McDonagh for Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri.
Should Win: Jordan Peele, Get Out.

9. Best Animated Feature Film
Will Win: Coco.

10. Best Cinematography
Will Win: It’s neck and neck between Dunkirk and Blade Runner 2049. My hunch is Roger A. Deakins (14 nominations, 0 wins!) for Blade Runner 2049 finally has enough support this year.
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049 was visually incredible. Give Deakins his damn Oscar already!

11. Best Costume Design
Will Win: Phantom Thread, Mark Bridges
Should Win: Phantom Thread!

12. Best Documentary
Will Win: Icarus (due to the lucky timing of voting during the Olympics).

13. Best Documentary (Short Subject)
Will Win: Heroin(e). The two most topical nominees are about opioids vs. police violence (Traffic Stop), so they’re the likely frontrunners.

14. Best Film Editing
Will Win: Dunkirk, Lee Smith
Should Win: It would be fun to see Baby Driver pull this off.

15. Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: A Fantastic Woman (Chile) is the most high-profile nominee, and might just beat out The Insult and The Square.

16. Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: Darkest Hour, Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski and Lucy Sibbick

17. Best Music (Original Score)
Will Win: The Shape of Water, Alexandre Desplat
Should Win: Phantom Thread, Jonny Greenwood. No one else is writing music like this.

18. Best Music (Original Song)
Will Win: “Remember Me,” Coco, Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
Should Win: I’d usually say nothing, because Original Song is the dumbest Oscars category. But I’d love to see a surprise win for Sufjan Stevens’s “Mystery of Love” (Call Me By Your Name).

19. Best Production Design
Will Win: The Shape of Water, Paul Denham Austerberry, Shane Vieau, and Jeffrey A. Melvin
Should Win: The art and set direction are the best thing about The Shape of Water.

20. Best Short Film (Animated)
Will Win: Dear Basketball, so that we get to say “Academy Award Winner Kobe Bryant.”

21. Best Short Film (Live Action)
Will Win: I expect the heartwarming The Silent Child (about a mute 5-year-old) will tug enough heartstrings to beat the school-shooting short DeKalb Elementary. 

22. Best Sound Editing
Will Win: Dunkirk, Richard King and Alex Gibson

23. Best Sound Mixing
Will Win: Dunkirk, Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo and Mark Weingarten

24. Best Visual Effects
Will Win: War for the Planet of the Apes, Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon and Joel Whist