We have some real races this year! I’m waffling on a few categories, but this is my final ballot.

1. Best Picture
Will win: Many are predicting Birdman to best Boyhood. The Boyhood momentum has dwindled, but with its recent BAFTA win, there’s still love out there. Let’s go with Boyhood!
Should win: Today, I’ll say Birdman. Tomorrow, I might say Selma.

2. Director
Will and should win: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman

3. Actress
Will win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Should win: Can Moore tie with Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)?

4. Actor
Will win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Should win: Michael Keaton, Birdman

5. Supporting Actress
Will and should win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

6. Supporting Actor
Will win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Should win: Simmons is great, but my personal vote is for Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher).

7. Original Screenplay
Will and should win: Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness, The Grand Budapest Hotel

8. Adapted Screenplay
Will and should win: Damien Chazelle, Whiplash

9. Foreign Language Film
Will win: Ida

10. Animated Feature
Will win: How to Train Your Dragon 2

11. Documentary
Will win: Citizenfour

12. Original Score
Will win: Jóhann Jóhannsson, The Theory of Everything
Should win: Alexandre Desplat, The Grand Budapest Hotel

13. Original Song
Will win: “Glory,” Selma

TECHNICAL

14. Cinematography
Will and should win: Birdman

15. Costume Design
Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should win: Into the Woods (Can we talk about this costume?)

16. Editing
Will and should win: Boyhood (Sandra Adair had twelve years of footage to splice together into something coherent.)

17. Makeup & Hairstyling
Will win: Guardians of the Galaxy (Exhibit A: Glenn Close’s weave.)
Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel (Exhibit B: Tilda.)

18. Production Design
Will and should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

19. Sound Editing
Will and should win: American Sniper

20. Sound Mixing
Will win: American Sniper
Should win: Whiplash

21. Visual Effects
Will and should win: Interstellar
SHORTS

22. Animated Short
Will win: The Dam Keeper

23. Live-Action Short
Will win: The Phone Call

24. Documentary Short
Will win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1