Oscar Nomination Predictions 2015

Note: I later edited my nomination predictions with incorrect guesses in orange. Proud to say I was right about Marion Cotillard, and that Steve Carell snuck in (though for Actor, logically). 

Best Picture

Under current Academy rules, we could see up to 10 nominees, but I expect 9, in keeping with the last three years.
Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Nightcrawler
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

Best Director
There may be a push to include more distinctive directors (Anderson, Fincher) at the expense of newcomers Morton Tyldum and Damien Chazelle. We’ll see.
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ava DuVernay, Selma
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Best Actress
Easily ten other performances the Academy could consider (Scarlett Johannson twice!, Gugu Mbatha-Raw twice!, Emily Blunt, Essie Davis, and so on…), but this year has been especially narrow for the Actress race. Nonetheless, I think voters might hesitate before checking off Jennifer Aniston.
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

*Wild card: Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night

Best Actor
This category may surprise us the most.
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

*Wild card: Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Supporting Actress
Another narrow pool. And Streep will not be ousted! Remember how she bumped out Emma Thompson in 2014… and her work in Into the Woods is stronger.
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

*Wild card x 2: Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year; Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer

Best Supporting Actor
Easily the most predictable category, but I refuse to believe the Academy will blindly vote for Robert Duvall.
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmon, Whiplash

*Wild card: Steve Carell, Foxcatcher (in a surprise category-switch vote) (I was half-right here!)

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